Geopolitics. Realpolitik.
Many think that there are major geopolitical shifts in the world going on right now, based on what has transpired regarding Ukraine, as if Trump/USA have all of a sudden changed sides and are now supporting Putin. But I believe that whatever has been happening everything is still going according to the American plan or somewhere in that trajectory, and the plan has one general direction with opprotunities of many improvements and improvistions on the way just like with everything pertaining to the coplex ecosystem of geopolitics. (this view has many angles, this time we will explore only one angle of geopolitics).
I believe that in 1990’s, when the Soviet Union collapsed, America believed the work with Russia’s destruction or taming Russia was left incomplete.
So there had been concerted efforts done by Americans for the following decades to tempt Russia into making a big mistake and fall into a trap. And America finally succeeded in the form of the Ukraine Russia war which turned out to be Russia’s Achilles heel.
American high ranking state department official Victoria Nuland herself confessed that they had spent $5 billion in Ukraine to lure Russia into invading Ukraine.
I believe that Americans and the west in general believed that Russia was slowly getting wealthier and stronger and it needed to be put in its place. (No one wants nephilims wrecking havoc in the world. Nephilims = those who use Protestant Christian achievements and mixing it up with (Russian) unlimited oil and gas revenues to develop into a superpower). In mid-1990’s Russia’s ambassador in DC had met with Clinton and Co., offering Americans to make Russia as America’s senior partner. Of course, Americans were shocked at the hubris and arrogance of russians to even conceive of such an offer, Clinton himself barely restraining himself from bursting into laughter. But they did have a very good laugh at the white house and the State Department after the Russian ambassodor had left receiving a NO answer. For those who don’t know, Europe is America’s Senior Partner, Russia was only offered to be America’s Junior Partner, and it didn’t please the russians at all. America rejected Russia’s offer because Russia is a very poor and chronically backward country, permanently corrupt, inefficient, and stupid. Russians apparently believed that because they have so many resources and 5000 nuclear ICBM’s, that would qualify them to be America’s Senior Partner. But Russia doesn’t really produce anything except raw materials, which can easily be sourced from other places in the world. There is really nothing that Russia has that America is in dire need of. Even Russian oil and gas can be quickly replaced, which was proven in the last several years after Russia invaded Ukraine. Russians were predicting that Europeans were going to freeze to death and their economies would quickly collapse once they stopped buying Russian gas and oil, but this was not to be. They were proven very, very wrong.
Russian historically had been an Eastern Orthodox religion/culture therefore it has always been historically and currently totally backward. They never developed like the western Protestant counties did, whether it was theologically, technologically, economically, politically, militarily, socially, psychologically. And given the fact that Eastern/Russian orthodox religion has been having a strong resurgence in Russia, this ensures that Russia is going to remain a very backward and inefficient poor country for the foreseeable future. The Eastern Orthodox nations have no work ethic, no morality, no honesty, no communication, no communion, no holiness, and pressing majority of them are actually atheists when you talk to them about the Bible and theology.
The Russian Tsar Peter the Great had tried to modernize Russia by merging Russia with Protestant Europe, as he saw Europe’s massive advancements and progress. But he failed, as this project involves also societal and religious and cultural changes which require several hundred years, with no guarantee of success. And the Czar had faced massive pushback from orthodox priests of his day, and when he died Russia just went back to where it was, right into the gutter.
Putin I think has been trying to be another Peter Great since the time he started his rule (in the year 2000) by merging Russia with Europe. He had managed to convince thousand of European and American companies and manufacturers to move to Russia and start production there and also do technology transfers to Russia. Russians also had started to adopt western financial workings and systems, though this mainly failed as Russia doesn’t have a Protestant law abiding society. There were just too many frauds done for the system to work effectively (I know this because I lived there and know the society and system very well, from my first hand experience). Business contracts and signatures do not really have power if people signing them are wicked (non Protestant). I have signed 100’s of real estate and other contracts in Los Angeles and on each case there were 1000’s of ways I could go around the contact and not honor them, if I was a wicked person.
But one thing to consider, Russia wasn’t illiterate Muslim society in 1990’s, they were very literate/competent society. Except … a very wise man once told me that in business you need to have 2 things, competence/literacy and morality.
Those who have morality but no knowledge(are retards) will mess up the deal and hurt themselves and the counterparty. Those who have competence but no morality are extremely dangerous people, they go on destroying many lives and families for the sake of their profits. I occasionally see such highly competent and immoral people in Los Angeles who (quite legally) destroy peoples lives. But when I was living in the Soviet Union, these cases were not occasional, they were the norm. It was a total shitshow and broken lives everywhere you looked, and it’s still so today.
The west realized its mistake in merging with Russia and doing technology and knowledge transfers, as morality totally lacks in Russia and is seen by Russian society as human weakness or even sickness. Russia is a “dog eats dog” society, total savages.
With the wealth and advancement that Russia was having after 2000’s, they started reclaiming their former Soviet Union colonies and military bases such as in Syria and even new ones in Africa. And they had started to push the French and other western influences and military/economic presences out of those regions.
Russians don’t know how to conquer nations by their culture, economy, and finances, so they do kinetic wars, military invasions and occupations and by spilling blood. Britain didn’t conquer the world by its military (in 500 million population India Britain had top 40k troops only). They used christian missionaries and developed backward countries and did technology and other transfers, and taught them morality. (Homosexuality only became illegal in Muslim regions because of Victorian English influences in those Muslim lands, when they were under protestant christian British rule). Protestant Christianity had made the English(or the Dutch) a superior nation compared to pagan nations and pagans willingly welcomed the British and benefited immensely from them. Backward Orthodox Russia, in contrast, has nothing to offer. They just go and bribe savage African or Latin American outcast leaders and warlords who control the population and resources and get the resources, which don’t last long as other warlords take over or revolutions happen and russians are kicked out. Pagans don’t have long term thinking or planning. And those African nations who kicekd out the French and welcomed Russians have started to get buyer’s remorse. With the French, their young people were welcomed into France to study in top french universities and even bring their familes with them to live in France, and there were a ton of remittance money sent back to their relatives in their home countries. But with Russia, black people can’t really walk on the streets of Moscow or St Petersburg without being spat on or frowned upon, and they often times get beaten and harassed by Russians in the streets. Russians absolutely can’t stand dark skinned people. They don’t even view them as human beings. A black student from Ghana or Cameroon can go and study in a Russian university, but after graduation they are never allowed to stay in Russia.
But what pertains to the war in Ukraine and Trump’s supposed “major” geopolitical shift, I don’t believe there is any major changes taking place “since world war 2”, as many claim it to be so.
The official narrative which everyone reads shows there are major changes taking place, but the real narrative is always beneath the official narrative, sometimes tucked several layers down, beneath other narratives. This is true in all aspects of life, specially when you are dealing with older wiser people and specially when there is a lot of money and power and control involved.
There are several facts on the ground that refute the official narrative that America exclusively decides how this war is going to go.
- Ukrainian army proved to be more capable than anyone would have imagined, specially after they evolved and learned from experience. Russian special (airpborne) forces capabilities were only legendary in their patriotic movies, many of which I have watched in the past. Majority of Russian spetsnaz forces have already been killed, they were killed in the first year of war. Uki army is much stronger and experienced now than ever before. After 3 years of war the Russian army is still stuck in eastern Ukraine trying to conquer small bombed out and abandoned villages with enormous losses.
- Europe has enough industrial capacity, know-how and military technology to support the war and replace America as ukrainians’ main sponsor. EU’s GDP dwarfs that of Russia’s, and their Industrial base and diversity of production far outpaces Russia’s.
I believe Trump’s claims of ending the war quickly are a chimera. He had “shockingly” started to praise Russia and Russia’s military capabilities and their values. But these are all calculated statements by Trump. From my experience dealing with some commercial property giants like Trump, I never trust anything they say, as you shouldn’t too. And what they eventually actually do ends up being radically different than what they say. Words mean nothing. Their positions change rapidly based on what direction the negotiations go and how the counterparty responds and what they find out about the counterparty. This is actually not a weakness, this is a strength.
I believe Trump’s main objective is to offer Russia something in exchange to have Russia cut their relationship from China and Iran. Trump’s main target is China, and Iran. In Moscow they know this, this is why in Moscow there is dead silence about the offered conditions put forth by Washington. I think the conditions offered to Russia are so bad that they are unacceptable to Russians in their current form so they say nothing. The conditions are far worse for Russia than for Ukraine. The Americans have offered for Russia to return the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions back to Ukraine(Kellogg plan), and for Crimea and Donbas to be in a suspended status to be resolved in the future. Even the most optimistic Russians won’t be able to call this a “victorious peace” for Russia. And at this time Moscow doesn’t consider the war to be lost to the extent that it would agree to such conditions, which apparently will erode the authority of Putin and the Russian government with all its consequences.
Trump is basically offering Putin an honorable suicide.
I believe both Moscow and Kiev want to take a break from the war to prepare for the 2025 Spring and Summer military campaigns and major clashes in order to improve their future negotiating positions. The 100 day Trump plan is more advantageous for Kiev as it will most likely be violated and Trump in the meantime will start implementing his threats against Russia if Russia doesn’t obey Trump’s demands.
I believe Trump publicly criticized and rejected Ukraine’s NATO bid in order to provide the Russian leadership with a carrot to motivate them to cut off their ties with China and Iran, and to make Putin look victorious in the eyes of ordinary (stupid) Russians.
I believe the current Russia USA negotiations are revolving around these conditions. And if Russia doesn’t follow thru to cut their ties with China and Iran then the war in Ukraine will intensify rapidly and Trump will demand the implementation of his conditions from Russia, or else. And Trump seems to be moving very rapidly in this direction, to the surprise and shock of many.
It’s very easy for Trump to be in this shaky and shifty position because the EU will keep rejecting these negotiations and as the Ukrainian army gets stronger and Ukraine keeps demanding “territorial integrity” clauses.
And knowing a commercial property investor guy from NY like Trump is, even after Moscow agrees to give him everything he demands and Trump received those things, he can just cancel US obligations to Russia “out of respect for its allies” and the “people of Ukraine”. Or Moscow might hear something classic like “Rome doesn’t pay traitors”. I believe that for Russia, Trump is the most dangerous person in the world.
Moreover, Trump’s recent shocking anti-nato and anti-Ukraine announcements and moves have provided him a strong “whip” in the form of a unified and consolidated Europe against Russia, without any further effort and without wasting time. And in other occasions Trump and his high ranking team members have said that they don’t want to waste much time on Russia as their main target is China/Iran.
Trump’s grand plan is to take Russia out of the game without really giving it anything in return, and most likely Trump will succeed, as Russia doesn’t really have much options here.
Trump proceeds out of the belief that
- Russia is seriously weakened and stopping the war with the “Kellogg plan” will further weaken Russia.
- All the promises made to Russia require lengthy consultations with the nato allies and with Ukraine which seems to have some form of its own autonomy and decision making. This provides Trump with many legal excuses not to fulfill his own obligations to Moscow. (In his last term he said he would imprison Hillary Clinton and after he was elected he said “Hillary has written me a very nice and kind letter” and the Hillary issue closed and nobody said anything. Same with building the border wall and making Mexico pay for it. He later blamed Congress for not allowing him to do that, even though he had Executive Authority to implement it. Blameshifting is Trump’s profession. In his “Art of the deal” book he constantly advises his readers to never accept any fault of their own. I am not saying this is bad for Trump or America, I think this is even an advantage for America to have such a president who understands the language of the world and is so worldly wise.
- America has already won the current war without entering the battle itself, significantly weakened Moscow’s influence in the world, weakened its economic positions in Europe and elsewhere, inflicted severe damage on the Russian armed forces and economy, eliminating Russian super important bases and influences in the Mediterranean(Syria) and in Africa, which was threatening NATO’s south-western flank. .
And even if these current Russia USA talks and negotiations fail, America loses nothing, but gets convenient excuses to continue supporting Ukraine in order to “force the aggressor to make peace”, as Marco Rubio and JD Vance on occasion have openly threatened Russia. And one of the unexpected benefits (for the West) of this war has been that no one in the world is afraid of Russia anymore. In 3 years of war Russia managed to demonstrate to the whole world a blatant managerial and military-command failure, and in terms of strong willed decisions – total impotence, indecision and fear. It also cracked open the widespread corruptions and bribes scandals going on in higher ranks of the Russian military and industrial areas.
I think Moscow understands Tramp’s motives and plans and will keep dragging the negotiations as long as they can, though Trump has offered them 100 days to achieve “peace thru compromise”, which would mean both Russia and Ukraine “paying a price and repenting” of their sins to America LOL, and both of them not getting what they want, but America receiving solid economic benefits and peacemaker laurels, strengthening its reputation as world superpower.
And if within 100 days nothing is achieved according to the Trump plan, then he will start using the whip and sharply escalate the conflict with major Ukrainian military offensives against Russian held Ukrainian territories and within Russia proper itself. And we must remember that the American Congress has very strong bipartisan support for Ukraine and will put a leash on Trump in case he decides to offer too much to Russia. And for the coming Ukrainian offensives, ukies this time are much more prepared as they have developed full production cycle for drone making and they are set to make 4+ million drones this year, which seem to be the decisive weapon in this war. Even if %25 of these uki drones penetrate Russian anti missile and EW systems and hit their targets, that’s an aweful lot of existential damage on the Russian military and industry.
Ukrainians have also figured out how to effectively jam Russian aircraft delivered precision glide bombs which helped Russians conquer recent territories. Those glide bombs would pulverize Ukrainian positions with their stand off massive bombs from 25 miles away and then would have their infantry attack and easily conquer Ukrainian positions. Nowdays Ukrainians are electronically jamming these glide bombs’ radio and satellite navigation systems. The only way for these bombs to reach their targets is using their onboard inertial navigation and terrain mapping correction systems, and Russians aren’t very good at this yet. They seem to be decades behind in this technology.
Also, in recent days Trump started to expedite his plans by totally cutting military and intelligence aid to Ukraine. Ukrainians aren’t getting anymore targeting data and coordinates so the American made HIMAR missles have basically been shut off. I believe Trump did this in order to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensives that had been generating momentum in Toretsk, Pokrovsk and other directions. Biden did this same thing when he was president. When Ukrainians had all of a sudden turned the tide of the war and were re-conquering a lot of their lost territories and causing a lot of damage to the russians, Americans stopped aid to Ukraine for almost 10 months. Americans don’t really want Ukraine to quickly or even slowly win this war. It would destroy their plans. They want stalemate at best. But they’d prefer to slowly bleed both Ukrainians and Russians in an endless war, which I think is the genius of the American plans.
But, if Trump’s very complex and sophisticated plan works with Russia and they get cut off from China and Iran, then Trump’s next target will be China and Iran, which has been Trump’s target from the very beginning. And Trump will smash both of these countries to pieces and grind them to fine powder.
Russians were seeking to become America’s senior partner, but since nowdays they are deep into the gutter, they would be happy to become America’s senior partner, and I don’t think they would hesitate to instantly piss on China and Iran as America would require them to do that. But if Russians drag their feet, Trump can quickly escalate Ukrainian major counteroffensives against Russians, and time is not Russia’s friend here.